The 53 Best Franchise Players In The NBA 201617 Edition

14K. PorzingisNY22PF+0.0D. NowitzkiY. Jianlian39.7 7Anthony DavisNO24PF+1.8K. GarnettD. Favors45.6 PLAYERTEAMAGEPOS2017 +/- VS. PROJ.BEST CASEWORST CASEUPSIDE WAR A few years ago, Kevin Love would have ranked much higher on this list. But a couple of good-but-not-great seasons since joining the Cavs have dropped his standing within the league significantly. Ditto Blake Griffin — though Griffin’s problems have largely been the result of injuries, not underperformance. Griffin’s strong start to 2016-17 suggests he might be moving up the rankings soon. Also, check out Minnesota, with two point guards in this group. Ricky Rubio has always been a tantalizing player for statheads, but often a disappointing one; even this year, he’s been injured and played poorly in the two games he did suit up for. Kris Dunn is younger, but still a rookie, and he’s also been uneven in 2016-17 thus far. How he, Rubio and Wiggins perform will go a long way toward determining whether the T-Wolves live up to the playoff-bound expectations CARMELO set for them in preseason. We’re starting to enter the territory of elite players. Then again, the NBA is a notoriously top-heavy league, so all of the names in this group are still probably too young (Hi, Aaron Gordon), too old (Kyle Lowry) or too otherwise flawed to be the No. 1 player by value over the next six seasons. But this portion of the list features some fascinating possibilities for future league leaders, including John Wall and his breakneck speed, Damian Lillard and his endless range, and Kristaps Porzingis and Ben Simmons, who both have freakish star potential. (Though we won’t really see what Simmons can do this year until he returns from a foot injury.) And although Chris Paul slipped down to No. 12 from eighth place last year, he’s played like a man possessed in the early going this season. (Maybe the Clippers can win a ’chip with a star point guard after all!) Based on “upside WAR” — wins above replacement with negative seasons zeroed out — over next 6 seasons. 25Marcus SmartBOS23PG-7.7D. HarperJ. Givens32.3 6-YEAR PROJECTION 46Nicolas BatumCHA28SF-1.1A. EnglishR. Davis21.4 6-YEAR PROJECTION 51A. WigginsMIN22SF-1.9S. A.-RahimM. Beasley19.9 49Gorgui DiengMIN27C+2.1J. NoahS. Pollard20.2 PLAYERTEAMAGEPOS2017 +/- VS. PROJ.BEST CASEWORST CASEUPSIDE WAR 16Damian LillardPOR27PG+1.5R. AllenB. Roy39.2 36Blake GriffinLAC28PF+5.5P. GasolB. McAdoo24.2 Two weeks into the NBA season, it’s still too soon to come to many sweeping conclusions about the state of the league. Maybe the talent-stuffed Warriors will continue to underperform like so many superteams have before them; maybe they’ll click and start dominating. Maybe the Clippers really are the best team in basketball; maybe they’ll still have to reckon with the trend of point guard-led teams underperforming in the playoffs. Bottom line is, there’s a lot of basketball left to be played.In some ways, then, it feels more relevant at this stage of the season to check in on the state of the game at the player level. So we thought we’d use our CARMELO projections to update an analysis we did last year: finding the league’s top 50 (or thereabouts) franchise building blocks. These rankings are based on preseason projections, ordered according to how much value each player is expected to produce1Specifically, how much positive value; we quantify a player’s upside by adding up his wins above replacement and zeroing out negative seasons. over the following six seasons (including 2016-17). But for each player, I’ve also listed how much a player is exceeding (or underperforming) his preseason projected box plus/minus so far this season. We’re only a few games into the NBA’s infamously long regular season, but some players could play themselves up or down the list based on how they’ve performed thus far.In keeping with last year’s 53-player ranking, here are the 53 best franchise players in the NBA for 2016-17, according to CARMELO: 6-YEAR PROJECTION Top NBA franchise players: Nos. 53-41 26Kyrie IrvingCLE25PG-4.1S. CurryB. Gordon32.0 11Dr. GreenGS27PF+1.3L. NanceR. Reid43.1 13Ben SimmonsPHI20PF—C. BoshA. Bennett42.0 39Ricky RubioMIN26PG-7.0J. KiddA. Hill23.8 20Aaron GordonORL21PF-1.4L. DengM. K.-Gilchrist34.0 PLAYERTEAMAGEPOS2017 +/- VS. PROJ.BEST CASEWORST CASEUPSIDE WAR 34Kris DunnMIN23PG-1.5D. LillardL. Jackson26.0 Top NBA franchise players: Nos. 30-21 22Jimmy ButlerCHI27SG+2.4D. MajerleJ. Howard33.7 37Joel EmbiidPHI23C-0.1J. NoahM. Bradley23.9 44K. C.-PopeDET24SG+1.9H. HawkinsH. Barnes21.5 2R. WestbrookOKC28PG+6.2M. JordanG. Hill63.1 40J. WinslowMIA21SF-3.3K. GarnettM. K.-Gilchrist23.7 Based on “upside WAR” — wins above replacement with negative seasons zeroed out — over next 6 seasons. PLAYERTEAMAGEPOS2017 +/- VS. PROJ.BEST CASEWORST CASEUPSIDE WAR 41D. ValentineCHI23SF-6.1K. HinrichR. Gaines23.2 35Kevin LoveCLE28PF-3.4J. SikmaS. A.-Rahim25.3 6LeBron JamesCLE32SF+0.5K. MaloneD. Wade50.0 Top NBA franchise players: Nos. 20-11 47B. IngramLAL19SF-0.2C. BoshA. Wiggins21.3 Based on “upside WAR” — wins above replacement with negative seasons zeroed out — over next 6 seasons. 43A. DrummondDET23C+0.7S. KempA. Biedrins22.2 Top NBA franchise players: Nos. 40-31 21D. CousinsSAC26C+1.6K. MaloneB. Griffin33.7 27G. HaywardUTA27SF+0.1C. MullinB. Roy30.1 24Kemba WalkerCHA27PG+3.8J. TerryE. Johnson32.6 33Otto Porter Jr.WAS24SF+4.3R. McCrayH. Barnes26.4 1Stephen CurryGS29PG-4.5L. BirdT. Porter73.0 23Paul GeorgeIND27SF-2.1D. WilkinsL. Hughes32.9 12Chris PaulLAC32PG+11.9J. KiddK. Johnson42.0 42Elfrid PaytonORL23PG-4.3B. DavisL. Wright22.9 8Kevin DurantGS28SF+0.4K. MaloneB. Daugherty45.1 28Nerlens NoelPHI23C—J. SikmaS. Swift28.6 6-YEAR PROJECTION Based on “upside WAR” — wins above replacement with negative seasons zeroed out — over next 6 seasons. 9G. AntetokounmpoMIL22PG+6.2K. GarnettR. Gay43.6 Based on “upside WAR” — wins above replacement with negative seasons zeroed out — over next 6 seasons. 15Rudy GobertUTA25C+0.2J. NoahD. Causwell39.5 In this neighborhood of the rankings, you’ll find a number of really solid players either entering or already in their primes, though not all of them have met expectations in the early going. Boston’s Marcus Smart, for instance, was a CARMELO favorite in 2016, but he didn’t have the star turn the algorithm expected and he’s been downright bad so far this season. (Unsurprisingly, Boston has also failed to meet preseason projections as a team this year.) But Charlotte’s Kemba Walker has been a pleasant surprise: His individual numbers have beaten CARMELO’s forecast,2He has a +6.6 BPM, compared to his projection of +3.0. and his Hornets are off to a 6-1 start. It could be another career season for a player who’s improved his BPM every year of his career. 17John WallWAS26PG+1.2J. KiddT. Evans38.0 19Kyle LowryTOR31PG-2.2G. PaytonG. Williams36.3 18D. JordanLAC29C-2.2B. WallaceE. Okafor36.6 53Jae CrowderBOS27SF+0.7D. MajerleH. Pressley19.4 5Kawhi LeonardSA26SF+5.1C. DrexlerW. Davis51.0 32D. RussellLAL21PG-0.1R. WestbrookZ. LaVine27.0 52Ed DavisPOR28PF-5.4D. DavisT. Battie19.4 30Victor OladipoOKC25SG-3.2R. AllenO. Mayo28.2 50Al HorfordBOS31C-1.3P. GasolT. Gugliotta20.0 PLAYERTEAMAGEPOS2017 +/- VS. PROJ.BEST CASEWORST CASEUPSIDE WAR Top NBA franchise players: The top 10 3James HardenHOU27SG+5.9L. JamesG. Hill62.7 4K.-A. TownsMIN21C+1.2K. GarnettJ. Smith59.4 31Paul MillsapATL32PF-1.5K. MaloneD. Roundfield28.2 45Eric BledsoePHX27PG+0.4K. LowryL. Drew21.4 38Steven AdamsOKC24C+1.7V. DivacJ. Valanciunas23.8 6-YEAR PROJECTION 29Derrick FavorsUTA26PF-5.2P. GasolS. Swift28.4 10Nikola JokicDEN22C-1.3S. KempZ. Pachulia43.2 48M. PlumleePOR27C-0.8J. NoahC. Johnson20.6 Al Horford at No. 50! That’s probably not what the Celtics were hoping for when they inked him to a $113 million contract, but he’ll also turn 31 in June and his reputation has always (slightly) exceeded his numbers. Meanwhile, Andrew Wiggins is an old hobbyhorse here at FiveThirtyEight, and — although his breakout season hasn’t quite materialized yet — CARMELO thinks he’ll start to show his true skills during the 2016-17 season. He’s not alone among the talented-but-kinda-raw perimeter types in this group, which also include Elfrid Payton, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and rookies Brandon Ingram and Denzel Valentine. CARMELO has been particularly high on Payton for a few years now, though he (like Wiggins) hasn’t shown many signs of turning that potential into production thus far. Finally, the top 10. And first, the surprises: Nikola Jokic at No. 10? (Twenty-year-old big men don’t put up the kind of season he had last year very often.) Giannis Antetokounmpo at No. 9? (His youth and versatility are great indicators for the future, and he’s playing even better so far this season.) Kevin Durant down at No. 8? (CARMELO is still cautious after KD’s injury-plagued 2015 season.) Anthony Davis, last year’s No. 1, dropping to seventh place? (You can read our analysis of AD’s down 2016 season here and here.) Defending NBA champ LeBron James below up-and-comers Kawhi Leonard and Karl-Anthony Towns? (This one depends how gracefully LBJ ages.)But at No. 1, we’re rolling with longtime FiveThirtyEight favorite Steph Curry. Although Curry is off to a weaker start than projected this season, his revolutionary 2015-16 season was one of the greatest performances in league history. Russell Westbrook is the greatest triple-double machine known to man (and has only added to his legend so far this season), so we’ll have to keep an eye on the Steph-Russ derby all season. But for now, Curry projects to contribute the most value of any NBA player over the next six seasons, to go with all the other Warriors high up on this list.Check out our latest NBA predictions. read more

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Why The NFL Cant Rely On Defense

Philadelphia led the league in QB hits but not sacksTotal quarterback hits, sacks and expected sacks for teams’ defensive lines in the regular season, 2018 Chicago954941.3+7.7– Green Bay714330.9+12.1– Defensive performance is unpredictableShare of performance across various team-level metrics predicted by the previous season’s performance in the regular season, 2009-2018 Total defensive DVOA9.7 Source: Football Outsiders High-impact plays on defense turn out to be the least predictable. And while we’re by no means great at identifying which teams will succeed on offense, offensive DVOA is about twice as good at forecasting future performance as defensive DVOA.4Based on data from 2009 to 2018.For teams like the Chicago Bears, who won 12 games despite fielding the 20th best offense in the NFL, this has major ramifications. The Bears were third in the league in turnover margin and third in sacks — feats we shouldn’t expect to repeat based solely on this season’s results. (Just ask the Jags.) Casting even more doubt on their ability to field an elite defense in back-to-back years, Chicago also lost its defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, who left to become the head coach in Denver, further destabilizing the strength of the team.Still there is some hope for lovers of the three-and-out. While rare, there are plays a defense makes that do tend to carry over from year to year. One of the most stable defensive stats is hits on the quarterback, which has a relatively impressive year-to-year r-squared of 0.21 — better even than total offensive DVOA, which is the gold standard for stability in team metrics. Quarterback hits include sacks — 43.5 percent of QB hits end in a sack, and those by themselves tend to not be predictive — but also plays in which the passer is contacted after the pass is thrown, and that contact is incredibly disruptive to a passing offense. Baltimore964341.8+1.2– Jacksonville903739.1-2.1– Tennessee803934.8+4.2– Cincinnati803434.8-0.8– Washington914639.6+6.4– New Orleans954941.3+7.7– Miami733131.8-0.8– Offensive rushing DVOA9.7 Atlanta733731.8+5.2– N.Y. Jets1093947.4-8.4– Indianapolis743832.2+5.8– Carolina683529.6+5.4– Tampa Bay883838.3-0.3– Pittsburgh1105247.9+4.1– L.A. Rams994143.1-2.1– Philadelphia1234453.5-9.5– Defensive passing DVOA10.0 When a quarterback is hit, his completion percentage is affected on a throw to any part of the field.5When the hit isn’t a sack, obviously. Teams that can generate pressure that ends with contact on the opposing QB greatly improve their chances of causing incompletions and getting off the field. And best of all, teams that are good at generating hits on the quarterback tend to stay good at it. We shouldn’t be surprised that great offensive teams have made it this far. Teams are more reliably good — and bad — from game to game and year to year on offense than on defense. Individual defenders often have wild swings in performance from season to season, and defensive units forecast to be dominant often end up being merely average. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense took them as far as the AFC championship a year ago, but that same defense led them to five wins this season. Meanwhile, performance on offense is generally easier to forecast, making investments on that side of the ball more reliable.Even then, football is largely unpredictable. When an otherwise sure-handed Alshon Jeffery2According to Pro Football Focus, Jeffery had just five drops for the season on 70 catchable targets. lets a well-thrown Nick Foles pass sail through his fingers for an interception to end the Eagles season, or when Cody Parkey double-doinks a partially blocked field goal to end the Bears’ playoff hopes, we are essentially cheering, or bemoaning, randomness. Most vexing for forecasters and league observers trying to make sense of things is that the plays that matter the most in football are often the most unpredictable. But again, this is particularly true on the defensive side of the ball.Turnover margin is the canonical example. Teams that win the turnover battle go on to win their games at a very high rate. Home teams win about 73 percent of their games when they are plus-1 in turnover differential, according to data from ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, and the home team win rate climbs to more than 86 percent when it’s plus-2 or better. metricShare predicted Oakland481320.9-7.9– Sacks3.6 L.A. Chargers773833.5+4.5– Buffalo833636.1-0.1– Houston864337.4+5.6– Cleveland833736.1+0.9– Teamqb hitsSacksexpected sacksDifference Offensive passing DVOA18.8 The Eagles, Jets and the Seahawks all appear to have better days ahead of them on defense. Each team racked up more than 100 QB hits in 2018. But they also experienced bad fortune, converting their hits into sacks at a rate below what we’d expect. If these teams generate similar pressure next season, we shouldn’t be surprised to see their sack totals rise just based on reversion to the mean. Meanwhile, Chicago, New Orleans and Kansas City experienced good fortune in 2018, converting their QB hits at a rate higher than we’d expect. Assuming the defensive lines return largely intact, we probably shouldn’t be surprised to see their sack totals dip next season.Stats like QB hits are rare to find on defense. And because of the high variance in defensive performance, teams built with a defense-first mindset end up controlling their own destinies less than we might expect. When it comes to team-building, this suggests that investments on offense are better long-term bets for stability. The results this year are particularly encouraging. Lighting up scoreboards by focusing on scoring points instead of preventing them has proved to be both successful and incredibly entertaining to watch. For this season at least, defense isn’t winning anyone a championship.Check out our latest NFL predictions. San Francisco853737.0+0.0 Arizona834936.1+12.9– Denver864437.4+6.6– Dallas923940.0-1.0– New England933040.5-10.5– Defensive rushing DVOA8.3 Show more rowsSources: NFL, Elias Sports Bureau Yet despite their clear importance, the number of turnovers a team creates in one season has no bearing on how many turnovers the team will create in the next. Both interceptions and fumbles are completely unpredictable from season to season at the team level. And this pattern holds true for defense in general. If we measure the stability of defensive stats from one year to the next,3Stability measures tell us how well a stat predicts itself over a period of time. Year-over-year r-squared of a metric tells us what percentage future performance, or variance, can be explained by past performance. we find that compared with offensive performance, most defensive stats are highly variable from year to year. Interceptions2.4 N.Y. Giants813035.2-5.2– In an NFL season marked by historic offensive production and a championship round that was conspicuously absent a top-10 defense,1According to Football Outsiders’ defensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. aficionados of low-scoring rock fights, filled with punts and field goals, have been left disappointed. The best defensive teams to make the playoffs were eliminated early in the tournament, with the Bears, Ravens and Texans all losing in the wild-card round. A week later, Joey Bosa and the emerging Chargers defense were dismantled by the Patriots, and the Cowboys — perhaps the best defensive team left in the divisional round based on their end-of-season play — lost to the Rams. Extracting the strong defensive teams with relatively weak offenses led to historically exciting playoff football, producing two overtime games in the championship round for the first time in NFL history. Now we have a Patriots and Rams Super Bowl pitting perhaps the greatest QB of all time in Tom Brady against the hottest young offensive mind in the league in Sean McVay. Kansas City1015243.9+8.1– Seattle1054345.7-2.7– Total offensive DVOA18.9% Fumbles1.6 Detroit744332.2+10.8– Minnesota864937.4+11.6– read more

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An elegant way to watch the FIFA World Cup

first_imgThe FIFA World Cup will be starting shortly. Looking forward for this extravanganza Shangri-la’s – Eros Hotel gives all the football enthusiasts a chance to  experience the thrill by screening the live matches at the Island Bar  through wide-screen televisions and surround sound stereos in the comfort of plush surroundings while they revel bottled brews and a delectable chef’s special menu. The bar has been dressed to look like a mini football stadium, with an array of exciting customized packages alongside. Guests can choose from an exquisite selection of theme based cocktails such as Attacker (A delightful mix of Cachaca, Pernod and Pineapple Juice flavoured with cardamom served tall over shaved ice), Dribble (Concoction of Absolut Mandarin, Grand Marnier,  Orange Juice with a hint of Passion Fruit),  Goal Kick (Concoction of Vanilla Vodka , Midori  and lemonade served tall), Header (Hendrick’s Gin made interesting with a hint of mint topped up with Cucumber Juice), Back Pass (Fresh Thai  sweet basil leaves muddled with Absolut Citron shaken with lemon cello served in a chilled Martini glass), Red Card (Vodka made interesting with Disaronno, Watermelon and Almond Syrup), Corner Kick (A delightful mix of Absolut Raspberry and Cranberry Juice powered with Red Bull served over Ice). The culinary team has  crafted an inviting selection of appetizers such as Fire Roasted Sweet Bell and Goat Cheese on Herbed Focaccia with Glazed Artichokes, Marinated Boletus on Herbed Brioche, Peking Spiced Prawns and Asparagus on Lemon Tarts, Thai Spring Chicken Cigars amongst others. Guests can also enjoy specially created packages such as Golden Goal (Bucket of six Domestic Beer and a platter of ‘Bocconcini Skewers with Roma Tomatoes and Sweet Basil Dressing or Thai Spring Chicken Cigars).Where: Island Bar at Shangri-la’s – Eros Hotel When: 12 June – 13 July Price: Rs 700- 3000last_img read more

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Mamata Banerjee condoles demise of Fernandes

first_imgNew Delhi: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee Tuesday condoled the demise of former union minister George Fernandes, saying he was a much admired trade union leader. The former defence minister passed away here on Tuesday morning. Fernandes was suffering from Alzheimer’s disease. Recently, he contracted swine flu, family sources said “Very saddened at the passing away of former Defence Minister and much admired trade unionist, George Fernandes Ji. I have known him for decades. My condolences to his family and admirers,” the Trinamool Congress leader tweeted.last_img

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